BUENOS AIRES - Argentina's central bank is setting a price floor under the volatile peso in hopes to avoid a sharp plunge in the currency after an opposition-won presidential election last Sunday shifted the country firmly back to the left.
The peso edged up on Thursday to 59.68 per dollar, with the central bank offering U.S. currency in the exchange market at a fixed 59.99 pesos per greenback, effectively putting a floor on the trade.
Authorities have also been rushing to stem a sharp decline in foreign currency reserves, after spending about $22 billion to defend the peso since business-friendly leader Macri was defeated heavily in an Aug. 11 primary election.
Argentina central bank president Guido Sandleris pledged on Monday to do everything possible to protect the bank's reserves, as the South American country transitions to a new leftist government amid a swirling economic crisis.
The country's creditors say fears are rising that reserves could run out, even as the country looks to restructure around $100 billion in local and overseas sovereign debt.
The central bank announced it would tighten a restriction on dollar purchases to $200 per month for individuals, down from $10,000 a month, until December, in order to protect forex reserves.
China has failed to curb excesses in its credit system and faces mounting risks of a full-blown banking crisis（中国债务/GDP 占比图）
Ah, but maybe you want to look around a bit and see how China’s total debt is compared with other economies, like this?
BTCUSD analysis: Bitcoin forecastsubmitted by Nick_Kiros to u/Nick_Kiros [link] [comments]
Experimental analysis of BTCUSD trends by means of Boston Consulting Group matrixTelegram channel — trading signals btc, eth, xrp
Today, I’ll go on to analyze the BTCUSD pair, as all the other altcoins depend on it.
A couple of days ago, there was quite and important fundamental event that was hardly responded by the crypto market. It is about the G20 meeting that was held in Argentina.
One of the most important agenda items was digital economy. As you know, they were discussing cryptocurrencies and the future of the crypto market. Following up on this meeting there was drafted a declaration. At first sight, it doesn’t seem to present any sensational solutions. However, the leaders of G-20 member-countries have admitted that cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology has a huge potential and its development is important for global economy. On the other hand, they have again emphasized the officials’ concern about poor regulation of the cryptocurrency market. Here, a particular emphasis is put on the risks, associated with money laundering and the development of illegal markets, as well as terrorist financing.
What does it mean?
It is a good signal for alarmists, who have been already disappointed in cryptocurrencies and dumped their deposits. Nobody will ruin the crypto market. Cryptocurrencies, as a type of investment assets will always exist in one form or another. What’s the point in killing the goose that lays golden eggs?! The hype around the crypto market turned into investors those, who had never thought about investing in any assets. Economic participation of people has sharply increased. There appeared whole industrial sector that became almost national idea for particular countries. It is far easier to legalize cryptocurrency and impose taxation, rather than to fight with the products of digital economy. The Group of 20 were discussing the issue of developing a taxation system for international digital services. It means only one thing - one way or another, the whole cryptocurrency market will be split into two parts; the first one will be completely transparent not only for users but for public authorities as well. There will be institutional investors and banks, along with corporations. There, the cryptocurrency will be completely integrated into banking services and become publicly available and user-friendly. Everything will be legalized and regulated. The second part will become a part of shadow economy and will be under continuous pressure from regulators and governmental authorities. The users of such cryptocurrencies will be automatically recognized as financiers of terrorism and accomplices in money laundering. The users of such cryptocurrencies will face potential imprisonment and international prosecution.
Even if it sounds unreal now, but if the G-20 are seriously discussing the cryptocurrency matter, I’m sure that the country leaders will join their efforts to bring this scenario into reality. So, I won’t be surprised if, in a few years, there will be another bitcoin fork that will be recognized by the Group of 20, included into gold and forex reserve and will become a new payment means; and the old bitcoin will become illegal and will be traded secretly.
But now, it is still an assumption and won’t come true in the new future.
I’d like to perform technical analysis of the current bitcoin market sentiment to find out what is going to be in the near future.
In my previous analysis a week ago, I offered a long-term forecast for the next 10 months, suggesting the major target at 2000 USD to be reached around October, 2019.
I still believe that the bottom at 2000 USD looks quite justified, in terms of both fundamental and technical analysis.
This scenario can be real in fact, if bitcoin will be moving in the downward channel with a corridor of about 3000 USD. Previously, BTC could be moving faster in a few days, but in the current crypto market situation, such a narrow range looks reasonable. However, Bitcoin has never moved as it was expected by the majority of traders.
I compared in detail the current market situation with the Bitcoin drop in 2014 and noticed some regularities that I emphasized in the last forecast for bitcoin future price.
If you look closer, you’ll see from the chart above that the bullish trend had been speeding up since August, 2014, and reached its peak in December.
I wouldn’t try to fit this into particular dates or months, but if I try to draw a direct parallel with the Bitcoin current fall, it should start falling faster.
To better explain my idea, I suggest you look at the chart above.
Many of you are likely to be familiar with the BCG matrix, is a corporate planning tool created by Boston Consulting Group. Long story short, the matrix describes the life-cycle of a product and its position in the market.
I won’t describe it in detail here. I just had an idea to analyze the price trend like a product. A trend is traded in the market like an idea, and each trader votes for it by means of their money, supporting or opposing the idea.
Based on this assumption, a trend, like a product, will pass through four stages:
In the given example, it is the green box that highlights the zone of the steady bearish trend. It was accepted and admitted by the market, and everybody supports the idea of Bitcoin drop. Everybody likes it and thumbs it up. The next stage is the developed stage, or Cash cow. That is when investors begin to gain the yield from their product and the investment is paying off. It the blue circle in the chart above. There, it is clear that manipulators are starting to buy out and get the cheap biotin, making up their funds spent on dumps.
A sure sign of this stage is incredibly high trade volumes.
The last stage is recession, or Poor dog. Such a dog is weak and won’t live for long. The product at this stage is not appealing or demanded. Interpreting this idea, there is a clear red circle in the chart above. Market participants don’t believe in the bearish trend any longer and don’t support the idea by their money. The funders are not interested in promoting this idea as its development costs exceed the potential profit, or it may at all generate negative cash return.
Therefore, the Bitcoin bearish trend, like a product, is leaving the market, being replaced by a different idea.
Drawing the same parallel with the ongoing bearish trend, you see that the Problem child stage has been already finished. Due to the strong bearish trend, this stage was lasting for a particularly long time, despite the price drop from 20 000 USD down to 6000 USD. The candlesticks clearly display strong volatility and the buyers’ resistance.
Eventually, following the long fight, market gave up and the bearish entered the stage of Star. It is clear that, due to the longtime resisting, the bulls stepped back, having lost quite much; and each crypto market participant believed in the bearish idea. The stage was developing very fast, and so, it ended quite soon. And it is clear that the BTCUSD downtrend trend is entering the Cash cow stage now.
As I’ve already said, at this stage, manipulators take an advantage of the market inertia and start “milking” the cow, as the marketing specialists call it; traders would say, trick out of hamsters’ money.
It is clear from the 15-minute BTCUSD price chart above that there are frequent buyouts; that is investors are gaining profits from the invested cash. Currently, while weak hands are losing their positions, the whales are buying out cheap bitcoins. It will go on until it becomes clear that the idea of the Bitcoin drop has been finished, and the bears don't have any more power to press the market down.
Most likely, at this stage, manipulators will repeat the same trick and start selling the bitcoins, they’ve already bought, to create stronger panic. People are extremely nervous, and so, manipulators won’t have to dump much.
If you gain look at the monthly BTCUSD price chart above, you see that the next wave is likely to start in February, 2019. Based on the depth of the plunge, the level at 2000 USD is such an irresistible barrier, which many will start from. I assume that manipulators anticipate this situation and will make their final buyout not going as low as this level. In the volume profile chart, it will look like a hump that I outlined by the red ark. After that, the bearish trend will start exhausting, amid trading flat and weak attempts to draw the price up to 4000 USD. The Bitcoin downtrend will enter the stage of Poor dog.
This period will be dangerous because of extremely low trade volumes, allowing the manipulators to perform various tricks and attempts to crash the market in order to buy more bitcoins at the lowest price level. There is likely to be another slide down before the bearish trend of 2018-2019 will finally end. The final drop is likely to be followed by a new idea, supporting the BTCUSD growth.
The whole cycle will start from the beginning. First, funders will heat the market up, selling the idea to hamsters. Next, supported by the market natural growth, they will launch the rocket up rather high, where they’ll start gaining cash. But that is another story; it is called Bitcoin uptrend of 2019-20??
Unfortunately, the manipulators haven’t yet finished developing their bearish trend, and we’ll have to wait.
That is my updated BTCUSD global scenario.
I wish you good luck and good profits!
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Argentina's central bank announced early Monday morning it would sharply cut the amount of dollars individuals could buy, amid concerns over outflows of foreign exchange reserves accelerating ... Argentine forex reserves hit lowest level since end-2018 amid dollar leak. Che On The Rocks. 8,949 301. Che On The Rocks . 8,949 301. Post Sep 18, 2019 #1 2019-09-18T12:27. BUSINESS NEWS SEPTEMBER 17, 2019 / 3:39 PM / UPDATED 18 HOURS AGO Jorge Otaola, Adam Jourdan BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentina’s foreign currency reserves have hit their lowest level since the end of last year, the most ... Argentina's foreign currency reserves are falling fast despite the government's tightening of access to dollars, hitting the lowest level since early 2017 in May as the country struggles to ... Foreign Exchange Reserves in Argentina decreased to 35622 USD Million in September from 36886 USD Million in May of 2020. Foreign Exchange Reserves in Argentina averaged 13202.88 USD Million from 1957 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 65345 USD Million in April of 2019 and a record low of 13 USD Million in February of 1972. This page provides - Argentina Foreign Exchange Reserves ... Argentina's foreign currency reserves have hit their lowest level since the end of last year, the most recent central bank data showed on Tuesday, at a time when the government has been burning ... Fitch Ratings cut Argentina’s long-term issuer rating by three notches to CCC from B, putting the South American nation on par with Zambia and the Republic of Congo. S&P lowered the country’s sovereign rating to B- from B and slapped a negative outlook on it. Gold Reserves in Argentina remained unchanged at 61.70 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2020 from 61.70 Tonnes in the first quarter of 2020. Gold Reserves in Argentina averaged 46.66 Tonnes from 2000 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 61.74 Tonnes in the third quarter of 2011 and a record low of 0.28 Tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2001.
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